The market layer: Morgan Stanley's $300 note rerates SpaceX on AI-compute math; Musk answers the gov-revenue question on record
From the Space digest for 2026-10-06
What happened: SpaceX (SPCX) jumped Monday to its highest close since mid-June (~$167–168, +6–8% depending on the wire; market cap ~$2.2T — and Musk's wealth back across $1T) as Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight and a $300 price target — the stock trading at a "40% growth-adjusted discount to mega-cap tech," with the note's new piece being how it valued the AI-compute business (SpaceNews/SEDaily/Yahoo); the rally ran a second day Tuesday. Inside the same window Musk fired back at the "NASA-dependent contractor" read: "roughly 90% of SpaceX's revenue this year will be commercial," with government revenue "less than 5%" in Q4 (Yahoo Finance). A "TSMC talks" headline rides the Monday close piece — no substance captured.
What's genuinely new: the street's case now runs through the AI-compute/Starship sum-of-parts rather than launch cadence alone, and the revenue-mix answer is on-record from the CEO — checkable, since SPCX is a public filer. The Florida-Starship filings (yesterday's story) are the physical layer under this re-rating.
Watch: the Q4 revenue mix (ledgered, review-by 2027-02-15); what MS's AI-compute valuation concretely assumes; TSMC talks substance (if any).
Links: SEDaily (second day) · Yahoo (Musk revenue mix) · Yahoo (MS call)