The first crewed Mars landing
Definition of done
Done when at least one person, flown from Earth by any country or company, lands on the surface of Mars and steps out onto it. A crewed flyby, a crewed Mars orbit or a landing on Phobos or Deimos does not count. Robotic landers, cargo-only ships, ground analog missions and simulations do not count, however much they prepare the way.
Where it stands
No crewed Mars mission has a firm date yet, and the hardware that would carry one is still in testing. Starship reached orbit for the first time on September 28, 2026, deploying 26 production Starlink satellites despite engine problems that cut the flight short, but propellant transfer between ships and orbital docking remain untested. Flight 15, working date November 8, is set to attempt the first catch of both stages, a step toward the full reuse a Mars ship would need. NASA's $700 million Mars Telecommunications Network award to Blue Origin on September 1 faces a Rocket Lab protest, with a decision due around December 20.
Milestones
2026-09-28: Starship Flight 14 reached orbit and deployed all 26 production Starlink V3 satellites, flying reused heatshield tiles for the first time, though engine problems forced an early return — space — Starship cadence: Starbase + Cape pad race
2026-09-01: NASA awarded Blue Origin a $700 million firm-fixed-price contract for the Mars Telecommunications Orbiter, a high-bandwidth communications and navigation relay for Mars missions — space — Mars Telecommunications Network: Blue Origin's $700M award, Rocket Lab's GAO protest
Related claims
- Elon Musk — the first tower catch of a Starship upper stage within a few months, and the first reflight of a recovered ship at the end of 2026 or early 2027 (said 2026-08-20; review by 2026-11-20): pending.
- Jared Isaacman (NASA) — Starship flying monthly or faster through the end of 2026 (said 2026-08-14; due 2026-12-31): pending.
- SpaceX/Musk — Starship reaching a weekly or twice-weekly launch rate in 2027, cut from an earlier forecast of daily flights by about August 2027 (said 2026-10-01; review by 2027-12-31): pending.