Commercial crew: Dragon retirement planning

status: watch, opened 2026-09-18, last moved 2026-10-08. Space nasa spacex boeing iss

• The thread: the ISS endgame's crew side — NASA extending SpaceX's CCtCap contract while planning for a post-Dragon fleet, with reporting that SpaceX intends to retire Dragon around 2030 and Starliner potentially becoming the station's primary crew vehicle.
• 2026-09-18: opened — NASA awarded SpaceX three additional CCtCap missions (total 17 through 2030, NSF ~12:10 PM ET); companion reporting (flag: syndicated report) that NASA is likely to order two more Starliner missions as Dragon retirement planning surfaces; Ryan Caton's crew-rating question ("when will Starship be crew-rated for trans-atmospheric flight?") is the adjacent watch. Watch: Starliner certification progress, whether 17 is the final Dragon count, Starship crew-rating milestones.
• 2026-09-21: Crew-13 targets October 1, 11:10 AM EDT (ISS ephemeris/TOPO data, ~2:41 PM ET; NASA unconfirmed) — delayed from mid-September by an oxidizer-valve leak on Crew Dragon. The Dragon-side slip now has a named cause and a new target; Starliner certification and the two-more-Starliner-missions watch stand unchanged.
• 2026-09-23: the target goes official — NASA KSC (~6:07 PM ET Sep 22): targeting 11:10 AM EDT Thursday, Oct. 1, SLC-40, with prelaunch reviews ahead. Matches the ephemeris-derived record exactly — the oxidizer-valve repair is holding on schedule.
• 2026-09-25: two forward items. (1) NASA + Boeing news conference Monday Sep 28, 3:00 PM EDT on "Starliner's development and plans for regular crew flights to and from the ISS" (NASA via NSF) — "regular crew flights" is the first on-record signal of a crewed Starliner plan; cover the conference, not the tease. Starliner Monday presser unchanged).
• 2026-09-28 (launch day + evening): two fronts in one day. (1) The launch went — Falcon Heavy flew the same morning as Crew-13 (Orlando Sentinel; the two-big-launches-one-morning capacity test). (2) The Starliner presser landed the plan (NASA
• Boeing, 3:00 PM ET, as forecast): Starliner-1 uncrewed NET December 2026/January 2027 (testing upgrades); crewed Starliner-2 in 2028 — with Reuters noting human-rating certification timing is uncertain and Space.com raising that it "may need a new rocket" (Atlas V phase-out context); NASA "will assist" Boeing (ULA "already working towards Starliner-1"). Commander: per Foust's RT of coverage, the Starliner-2 commander is confirmed/named (Astro_Woody — identity to verify against primary before print). For the Dragon-retirement watch: Boeing's return to crew rotation in 2028 is now the distant backup while Dragon flies to its planned final missions — the two-provider ISS-rotation question has a date on its Boeing half at last.
• 2026-09-26 (Dragon wind-down, physical): Falcon 9 recovery vessel Doug docked at Long Beach, joining Dragon vessel Shannon, "as SpaceX winds down Dragon recovery operations" (Bergheim via NSF) — the first physical-infrastructure datapoint of the Dragon-retirement watch (17-final-Dragon-count question stands; Starliner Monday presser unchanged).
• 2026-09-30: execution week — Crew-13 is GO for Thu Oct 1, 11:10 AM ET (SLC-40) after the oxidizer-valve delay held; the syndicated "SpaceX withdraws Dragon/F9 crewed missions after 2030" re-spins (TechTimes/digitaltoday) carry no new fact over the Sep 18/28 record — the retirement plan, 17 missions, Starliner-2-2028 and the Long Beach wind-down stand unchanged.
• 2026-10-01 (execution): Crew-13 flew today — ~11:15 AM ET off SLC-40, four crew, the oxidizer-valve repair held its schedule; booster B1101-3 landed at LZ-40. NSF coverage notes the pad's orange emergency-egress slides deployed during the launch sequence (SpaceX calling it accidental). Rotation runs while the Dragon wind-down record (above) stands; Starliner-2-2028 unchanged.
• 2026-10-03: "How NASA Saved Boeing's Space Program With a New Contract and $359 Million" — a dollar figure on the decision to keep Boeing's crewed program alive (headline-grade; contract shape unverified). The fresh reaction layer ("NASA throwing its entire access to space into question… SpaceX getting ready to pull the rug") is opinion, no new fact. Watch: what the contract actually buys (new award vs modification), Starliner-2-2028 viability.
• 2026-10-06: rotation steady — Crew-12 set to depart the ISS after ~eight months aboard, on Dragon Freedom (NSF, 7:43 PM ET; undocking window TBD), two weeks after Crew-13's Oct 1 launch. The retirement-planning record unchanged.
• 2026-10-08: Crew-12 home — Dragon Freedom undocked Oct 7, deorbit, splashdown off the Los Angeles coast Oct 8 (NSF live; 237 days aboard). Routine rotation, record kept: the Dragon retirement-planning watch (Starliner-2-2028, the $359M Boeing bridge) continues against a fleet demonstrably cycling crews on schedule.