Terafab: Musk's chip gigafab (compute for robots + space data centers)
- The thread: Tesla+SpaceX (xAI merged in Feb, "SpaceXAI") building a vertically integrated chip campus — logic + memory + packaging + testing under one roof — targeting 1 TW of compute per year, vs ~0.5 TW total US generation (Musk's own comparison). Two chip types: edge-inference for Optimus/Cybercab (AI5/AI6) and rad-hard space chips (D3) for space data centers. Intel 14A named as the process; Intel's first major external 14A commitment.
- Timeline of record: Mar 21 announced (Austin, "$20–25B headline", no
date); Apr 7 Intel joins; Apr Tesla breaks ground on $3B Austin research
fab (ATCF, few thousand wafer starts/mo); May 6 filings: phase 1 $55B,
to $119B total; May 27 SpaceX S-1: Terafab a "general framework," no
binding commitments, no finalized IP split, neither party obligated; Jun
3 Grimes County PILOT (100% abatement 2027–2036, $10M + $20M/yr × 35y =
$710M; effective abatement ~78% per SpaceX counsel); Jun 12 SPCX lists
on Nasdaq; Jul 14 four JETI phase agreements approved 5–2 (~$1.66B
school incentives); Aug 6 site confirmed — Grimes County (Gibbons Creek
Reservoir, ex-coal-plant brownfield, ~6,000 acres), $16.8B phase 1,
100M sq ft (would be world's largest building; ~15 Pentagons), 3,000 permanent jobs, Abbott adds $30M Texas Enterprise Fund grant; SPCX +15.8% on the day.
- 2026-09-08 (dig): movement since Aug 6 = permitting and foundations only. JETI active; county agreements executed and published; Austin ATCF foundations progressing + contractor fit-out permits (Jul 27); no Grimes groundbreaking date, no first-wafer date, no lithography tool orders confirmed, no IP split. Analyst estimates: Morgan Stanley — first output no earlier than mid-2028; own-process chips 2030s. Jon Peddie: AI5 small-batch via research fab late 2026/early 2027, first Grimes chips (AI6 + D3) late 2027, volume 2028; floor split ~25% edge / 75% space; Tesla hired ex-Intel vet Gary Jiang to run 14A licensing. The asymmetry is the story: every announcement has added scale and place, none has added time. Credibility anchors: NYT — fewer than 1 in 5 of 600+ Musk predictions delivered on time; SpaceX Q2: $7.8B sales, $541M net loss; ASML CFO (Jul 15) says 2027-28 capacity plans account for Terafab demand — the one supplier-side validation. Local: ~900- signature residents' petition; on-site gas power (Memphis xAI precedent for unpermitted turbines); water from Gibbons Creek Reservoir, not groundwater. The "50×" framing is fan-amplification, not company news. Still no tool orders, no site dates, no definitive Intel 14A license; the thread's "no announcement has added time" asymmetry holds.
- Watch for: Grimes County construction permits (county records move before press releases), ATCF cleanroom shell, ASML/litho tool orders, a definitive Intel 14A license replacing the framework, phase 2 activation, Brazos Valley fab-engineer hiring (18–24 mo pre-production).
- 2026-10-07 (X layer, reaffirm): Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan in Tokyo — Intel "will continue working with Elon Musk on Terafab," Intel's role in the project reaffirmed (DogeDesigner RT, X-grade single source). No tool orders, no site dates, no definitive Intel 14A license; the thread's "no announcement has added time" asymmetry continues — this entry repeats the partnership it describes.