AGI

status: open · updated Oct 15, 2026

Definition of done

This arc is done when an AI system that the public can use, or that outside testers have had full access to, is shown by independent evaluation to do most remote knowledge work at the level of a skilled professional across many fields. Concretely: at least one published evaluation run by someone other than the developer, covering a broad range of occupations, finds the system matches or beats expert professionals on a majority of tasks, and an independent autonomy test shows it can carry long, multi-day projects to completion with little human help, at a cost that makes it a real substitute. It must also work the way an employee does: given a goal at the level a manager would assign, it plans, starts and drives the work to completion on its own, asking only when it is actually blocked, and it keeps what it learns on the job, from feedback and its own mistakes, so it improves over weeks without retraining. It does not count if a company declares it has reached AGI or superintelligence, if a government or company renames AI, if one benchmark (such as ARC-AGI) is saturated, if a single striking result (such as a math proof) lands, or if the only evidence is vendor-run evals and demos. Physical and robotic work is not required.

Where it stands

As of late October 2026, no publicly available or fully outside-tested AI system has been independently shown to do most remote knowledge work at a skilled-professional level across many fields, and no independent evaluation or autonomy test has shown that bar is met. The frontier remains split among OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5 and Google's Gemini 4 Argon, which opened to developers and subscribers in mid-October; Google's newer Gemini 4 Carbon claims the top Text Arena score and second place in Agent Arena but is limited to some cyber defenders. METR judged Opus 5.5 unlikely to fully automate AI research, and ARC Prize found Argon's ARC-AGI-3 score fell from 97.5% with Google's adapter to 49.8% under the standard harness. OpenAI's math claims, including a batch The Verge counted at 722 manuscripts with Lean proofs and an earlier Navier-Stokes claim, still lack independent expert verification, while JEPA world-model papers await outside reproduction.

Milestones

• 2026-10-15: ARC Prize verifies Gemini 4 Argon at 97.5% on ARC-AGI-3 with Google's own adapter harness but 49.8% with the standard one, making Google DeepMind the second lab above 95% — ai — Gemini 4: the Kavukcuoglu ship window

• 2026-10-06: OpenAI publishes results on open math problems from an unreleased internal model, a batch The Verge counted at 722 manuscripts, released alongside Lean proof formalizations, after its September 8 Navier–Stokes claim, though no independent expert has yet read the batch — ai — OpenAI Navier–Stokes claim + same-day attribution fight

• 2026-09-30: Google ships Gemini 4 Argon, first to trusted cyber defenders, claiming first place on the Vals Index and Text Arena, with broad developer and subscriber access following on October 13 — ai — Gemini 4: the Kavukcuoglu ship window

• 2026-09-22: Anthropic releases Claude Opus 5.5, which tops the independent Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, while METR's pre-release testing finds only a modest gain on AI research work and judges full automation of it unlikely — ai — Anthropic post-pacing model line: Opus 5.5

• 2026-09-03: OpenAI launches GPT-6 Astra two days after Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, and independent indexes split the pair, with Artificial Analysis putting Fable ahead on intelligence and the two tied on coding — ai — GPT-6 Astra rollout

Related claims

• OpenAI — capabilities sufficient to fully automate AI research within 18 months, as relayed by board member Paul Christiano (said 2026-09-09; due 2028-03-09, review by 2027-09-09): pending.
• Anthropic — an embedded outside evaluation team with employee-like access and freedom to publish, in the near future (said 2026-09-12; review by 2026-12-15): pending.
• White House and frontier labs — Accord on Superintelligence, a voluntary joint commitment on frontier responsibilities with internal and external review (said 2026-09-29; review by 2026-10-29): pending.
• Sanders and Casar — a forthcoming Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act to permanently ban superintelligent AI and pause advanced AI development until a new regulator sets rules (said 2026-09-04; review by 2026-10-15): pending.

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