2026-10-03 opened. Facts on record: station-feasibility studies by
two consortia (Airbus DS, OHB — started June, ~9 months; Aschbacher:
station "may not be all-around-the-clock occupied" — possibly periodic
crewing + robotic ops); commercial access layer = Axiom + Starlab
agreements last month + Vast work (Haven-1 early 2027 w/ Arnaud
Prost; Pesquet/Svoboda/Golémis on a private ISS mission); cargo first
via TEC Nyx (ALADDIN contract €760M total/~$875M, €310M demo, launch
date still unannounced on Ariane 64; TEC targeted 2028 for demo);
crew-capacity candidates = human-rated Nyx + PLD's LINCE on Miura
Next; Isar first to complete ELC's orbital-before-2028 requirement;
Ariane 6 to mid/late 30s, no-reusable-launcher disadvantage conceded,
demand peak ~2030 with "not enough launchers in Europe"; Gateway
scrapped in the reorg → renegotiating contributions toward the Moon
surface; Parmitano pilots Artemis III (LEO-only per NSF, HLs + AxEMU
tests). Watch: a crew-vehicle contract, the station studies' outcomes
(~Jan 2027), Nyx launch date, MaiaSpace's ELC contract.
Background
The thread: ESA prices post-ISS self-sufficiency on the record — a
European-led station study and a crew-transport ambition costed at
~€10B (~$11.5B, approximate) vs ~€5B (~$5.8B) buying US access. NSF's
Europe update (Martijn Luinstra) carries the plan following the
member-state "Call to Boost European Space Exploration" endorsement.